2011年6月27日星期一

Romney and Bachmann lead Iowa poll (Reuters)

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DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) – Republican front-runner Mitt Romney and U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann led a closely watched presidential poll of Iowa Republicans, the state that holds the first contest in the nomination battle.

The Iowa caucuses, often held on a frigid winter night that can limit turnout to those most committed, often serves to winnow the field of candidates.

Whoever captures the nomination in the unsettled Republican field is expected to challenge Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 2012 general election.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, led the poll of likely caucus-goers with 23 percent, followed by 22 percent support for Bachmann, who is from neighboring Minnesota and a favorite of fiscal conservatives and the Tea Party.

Businessman Herman Cain had 10 percent support in the poll, U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas and former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich followed with 7 percent. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had 6 percent while former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum got 4 percent and former U.S. envoy to China Jon Huntsman followed with 2 percent.

The Des Moines Register poll has in the past been an accurate barometer of support in the key state, and it often sets a benchmark for candidate momentum as the race takes shape. This is the first Iowa poll for the upcoming election.

The poll of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers by pollster Selzer & Co was conducted June 19 to 22 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

In 2008, the poll correctly predicted wins for Republican former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who got support from Iowa's strong contingent of social conservatives, and for then-U.S. Senator Obama. Obama went on to win the presidency over Republican nominee John McCain.

Romney has consistently been the early front-runner in national polls for the 2012 Republican nomination but he has said he would not participate in the informal Iowa straw poll held in August. He had a disappointing second-place finish in the 2008 Iowa caucuses despite pouring resources into the race.

Iowa's first-in-the nation caucuses are widely seen as vital to the presidential hopes of Bachmann and Pawlenty of nearby Iowa.

Bachmann was set to formally announce her candidacy on

Monday in Waterloo, Iowa, where she spent her early childhood.

Last weekend, Texas' Paul won a non-binding preference poll at a Republican conference in New Orleans. Huntsman joined the field last week but said he will not campaign in Iowa, betting on a good showing in New Hampshire's primary roughly a week later.

The Republican field may expand, with the intentions of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Texas Governor Rick Perry unknown.

(Reporting by Kay Henderson and Andrew Stern; Editing by Bill Trott)


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Gay marriage backers: NY vote has national impact (AP)

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NEW YORK – Many obstacles still lie ahead for supporters of same-sex marriage, and eventually they will need Congress or the Supreme Court to embrace their goal. For the moment, though, they are jubilantly channeling the lyrics of "New York, New York."

"Now that we've made it here, we'll make it everywhere," said prominent activist Evan Wolfson, who took up the cause of marriage equality as a law student three decades ago.

With a historic vote by its Legislature late Friday, New York became the sixth — and by far the most populous — state to legalize same-sex marriage since Massachusetts led the way, under court order, in 2004.

With the new law, which takes effect after 30 days, the number of Americans in same-sex marriage states more than doubles. New York's population of 19 million surpasses the combined total of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa, plus the District of Columbia.

The outcome — a product of intensive lobbying by Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo — will have nationwide repercussions. Activists hope the New York vote will help convince judges and politicians across the country, including a hesitant President Barack Obama, that support of same-sex marriage is now a mainstream viewpoint and a winning political stance.

"New York sends the message that marriage equality across the country is a question of `when,' not `if,'" said Fred Sainz, a vice president of the Human Rights Campaign.

Wolfson, president of the advocacy group Freedom to Marry, said the goal is attainable by 2020, or sooner, "if we do the work and keep making the case."

The work — as envisioned by leading activists — is a three-pronged strategy unfolding at the state level, in dealings with Congress and the Obama administration, and in the courts where several challenges to the federal ban on gay marriage are pending.

"This will be a big boost to our efforts nationally," said Richard Socarides, a former Clinton White House adviser on gay rights. "It will help in the pending court cases to show that more states are adopting same-sex marriage, and it will help in the court of public opinion."

The New York bill cleared the Republican-controlled Senate by a 33-29 margin, thanks to crucial support from four GOP senators who joined all but one Democrat in voting yes. The Democratic-led Assembly, which previously approved the bill, passed the Senate's stronger religious exemptions in the measure, and Cuomo swiftly signed it into law.

Gay rights activists have been heaping praise on Cuomo for leading the push for the bill, seizing on an issue that many politicians of both parties have skirted. Yet the Senate vote marked the first time a Republican-controlled legislative chamber in any state has supported same-sex marriage, and several prominent Republican donors contributed to the lobbying campaign on behalf of the bill.

For those engaged in the marriage debate nationally, recent months have been a political rollercoaster.

Bills to legalize same-sex marriage failed in Maryland and Rhode Island despite gay rights activists' high hopes. However, Illinois, Hawaii and Delaware approved civil unions, joining five other states — California, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington — that provide gay couples with extensive marriage-like rights.

Adding those eight states to the six that allow gay marriage, more than 35 percent of Americans now live in states where gay couples can effectively attain the rights and responsibilities of marriage. Just 11 years ago, no states offered such rights.

For now, gay couples cannot get married in 44 states, and 30 of them have taken the extra step of passing constitutional amendments banning gay marriage. Minnesota's Republican-controlled Legislature has placed such an amendment on the 2012 ballot.

Brian Brown, president of the conservative National Organization for Marriage, vowed to seek defeat of the New York Republicans who helped the marriage bill pass. He also predicted victory for the amendment to ban gay marriage next year in Minnesota, and said this would belie the claims that the same-sex marriage campaign would inevitably prevail nationwide.

"We've won every free, fair vote of the people," Brown said Saturday. "Backroom deals in Albany are not an indication of what people in this country think about marriage."

Efforts may surface in some states to repeal the existing marriage bans, but the prospect of dismantling all of them on a state-by-state basis is dim. In Mississippi, for example, a ban won support of 86 percent of the voters in 2004.

Thus, looking long term, gay marriage advocates see nationwide victory coming in one of two ways — either congressional legislation or a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that would require all states to recognize same-sex marriages.

"The way you do that is creating a critical mass of states and a critical mass of public opinion — some combination that will encourage Congress and the Supreme Court," Wolfson said. "By winning New York, we add tremendous energy to the national conversation that grows the majority."

Shorter term, gay rights activists and their allies in Congress would like to repeal the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which denies federal recognition to same-sex marriages. The act is being challenged in several court cases, and Obama ordered his administration in February to stop defending the law on the grounds it is unconstitutional.

Democrats in Congress have introduced a bill to repeal the law, while the Republican leadership in the House has pledged to defend it.

Obama, when elected, said he supported broadening rights for gay couples but opposed legalizing same-sex marriage. More recently, he has said his position is "evolving," and he asked gay activists at a New York City fundraiser Thursday for patience.

Nonetheless, frustrations are mounting. Freedom to Marry says more than 112,000 people have signed its "Say I Do" appeal to the president, and gay marriage supporters have launched an EvolveAlready campaign on Twitter.

"We hope that, through this public pressure, we'll be able to move the president to understand that he's falling behind the majority of Americans who see marriage equality as a key civil right," said Robin McGehee of the advocacy group GetEqual.

Several recent opinion polls — by Gallup and The Associated Press, among others — have shown that a majority of Americans now approve of same-sex marriage, which a decade ago lagged below 40 percent support. Particularly strong backing for gay marriage among young people, who've grown up watching gay friendly films and TV programs, has prompted many analysts across the political spectrum to suggest the trend is irreversible.

Some conservatives, however, say the opinion polls are belied in the voting booth and point to the steady stream of approvals of state-level bans on same-sex marriage.

"The opposition has created an illusion of momentum but not a real base of support or track record of victory in the courts," said Brian Raum, senior counsel with the conservative Alliance Defense Fund.

Mary Bonauto would disagree.

An attorney with Boston-based Gay and Lesbian Advocates and Defenders, she has spent two decades battling for legal recognition of same-sex relationships. She helped win the landmark court rulings that led to civil unions in Vermont in 2000 and same-sex marriage in Massachusetts in 2004.

Even in the 1990s, she recalled thinking the cause eventually would prevail nationwide.

"I could see attitudes change," she said. "Eventually we have to have one standard of justice in this country and establish that sexual orientation is not a basis for discrimination."

She recalled setbacks just a few years ago in New York — a 2006 Court of Appeals ruling that there was no constitutional right to same-sex marriage in the state, and the decisive defeat of a same-sex marriage bill in the state Senate in 2009.

"The switch this time tells us there's a lot of momentum pointing toward marriage equality," Bonauto said.

Vermont lawyer Beth Robinson, now counsel for Gov. Peter Shumlin, worked with Bonauto in the late 1990s on the case that led to the state's pioneering civil union law. She expects the move toward nationwide same-sex marriage will be bumpy but inexorable.

"As people get to know their gay and lesbian neighbors, friends and family, the notion of denying those families equal rights becomes untenable," she said. "For New York to go there, on a vote rather that a court order, is huge ... It's a victory not just for New York, but for the whole country."

Robinson said Vermont, which legalized same-sex marriage in 2009, offered a lesson to wary Americans in other states.

"It isn't that the sky isn't falling — it's more positive than that," she said. "Vermont is a better place for it. Each of us has the opportunity to be our best selves."

Among the New Yorkers who will now get that opportunity are Richard Dorr, 84, and John Mace, 91, who have been partners for 61 years while pursuing successful careers as voice teachers in Manhattan.

"We thought about getting married in Massachusetts, but it just didn't seem to jibe right," said Dorr. "It should be in the state where you live."

They plan to seek a marriage license as swiftly as possible but don't envision a lavish ceremony.

"Just a couple of witnesses and a justice of the peace," Dorr said.

When they fell in love, back in 1950, "marriage never crossed our mind," he added. "It was just that we had to be together. We could not stay away."


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Illinois governor signs election law favoring Democrats (Reuters)

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CHICAGO (Reuters) – Illinois Democratic Governor Pat Quinn signed into law on Friday a new congressional district map that could reverse gains Republicans made in the state in 2010 midterm elections.

Democrats were able to leverage their control of the General Assembly and a Democratic governor to approve a new election map for 2012 that analysts said could help Democrats win at least three more congressional seats in the state.

The effects of the law, which Republicans or third-party interest groups may challenge in court, would be to pit strong Republicans against each other, extend Chicago Democratic incumbent districts into suburban Republican districts, and incorporate new voter blocs into Republican strongholds.

Quinn denied that the redistricting was a partisan ploy by Democrats.

"This map is fair, maintains competitiveness within congressional districts, and protects the voting rights of minority communities," Quinn said.

Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady differed.

"This bill is a crass, partisan political move to silence the voices of Illinoisans, who last November made it very clear that they wanted to fire Nancy Pelosi by electing a majority Republican Congressional Delegation from the home state of President Obama," Brady said.

The Illinois Republican Party's lawyers will review the maps to see if any state or federal laws have been broken, said Jonathan Blessing, a party spokesman.

In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans picked up 60 House seats nationally, knocking Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi from power and putting Republicans in charge of House committees. It was the biggest shift in power in the House since Democrats gained 75 House seats in 1948.

But Democratic analysts believe Illinois and California, where Democrats are still in power at the state level, are their best chances to gain back seats in 2012 through redistricting.

Republicans in power in most of the Midwest and South are drawing maps in those states seeking to protect new Republican members of Congress elected in 2010.

In Illinois, Republicans picked up four seats in 2010 to hold an overall edge of 11 to 8 in the state's congressional delegation. They also kept control of the wealthy North Shore suburban Chicago district vacated by Republican Mark Kirk's successful Senate bid.

Illinois will lose one of its 19 congressional seats due to slow population growth relative to other states, according to the federal census.

Andy Shaw, President of the Better Government Association, said the Illinois map was partisan politics as usual.

"Most of Quinn's adult life was spent in opposition to this blatant political manipulation of the system," Shaw told Reuters. "His willingness to sign the bill without any changes is another indication that he has had to abandon many of his progressive principles to be able to deal with the political realities of Springfield (the state capital)," he said.

(Editing by Greg McCune)


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Biden warns GOP on debt ceiling talks (AP)

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COLUMBUS, Ohio – Vice President Joe Biden said Saturday the Obama administration wouldn't let middle class Americans "carry the whole burden" to break a deadlock over the national debt limit, warning that the Republican approach would only benefit the wealthy.

Addressing Ohio Democrats, Biden said there had been great progress in talks with Republican lawmakers on a deficit-reduction plan agreement. But he insisted that his party wouldn't agree to cuts that would undermine the elderly and middle-class workers.

"We're not going to let the middle class carry the whole burden. We will sacrifice. But they must be in on the deal," Biden said in a speech at the Ohio Democratic Party's annual dinner.

Biden led efforts on a deficit-reduction plan but Republicans pulled out of the discussions last week, prompting President Barack Obama to take control of the talks.

The sides disagree over taxes. Democrats say a deficit-reduction agreement must include tax increases or eliminate tax breaks for big companies and wealthy individuals. Republicans want huge cuts in government spending and insist on no tax increases.

On tax breaks for the wealthy, Biden used the example of hedge fund managers who "play with other people's money."

"And they get taxed," Biden said. "I'm not saying they don't do good things, they do some good things. But they get taxed at 15 percent because they call it capital gains. Because they're investing not their money, (but) other people's money."

To ask senior citizens receiving Medicare to pay more in taxes when people earning more than $1 million a year receive a substantial tax cut "borders on immoral," the vice president said.

"We're never going to get this done, we're never going to solve our debt problem if we ask only those who are struggling in this economy to bear the burden and let the most fortunate among us off the hook," Biden said.

Republican leaders say without a deal cutting long-term deficits, they will not vote to increase the nation's borrowing — which will exceed its $14.3 trillion limit on Aug. 2. The Obama administration has warned that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, it would lead to the first U.S. financial default in history and roil financial markets around the globe.

Obama and Biden are scheduled to meet with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Monday. McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, say no agreement can include tax increases.

Biden assailed moves by GOP governors in Wisconsin and Ohio to strip away collective bargaining rights from most public workers while criticizing efforts by Republicans in Congress to alter the Medicare program. He defended Obama's handling of the economy, pointing to difficult decisions on an economic stimulus package and the rescue of U.S. automakers.

Ahead of Biden's visit, Republicans countered that Obama's policies led to GOP gains in 2010 and have failed to revitalize the economy.

"All the visits in the world from President Obama, Vice President Biden and other top-level surrogates won't change the administration's job-killing policies," said Republican National Committee spokesman Ryan Tronovitch.

Biden, who spoke frequently of his blue-collar roots in Scranton, Pa., during the 2008 presidential race, is expected to be a frequent visitor to the Midwest during next year's campaign.

Obama won states such as Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2008. But those states elected Republican governors in 2010 and are considered prime targets for Republicans next year.

Looking ahead to 2012, Biden called Ohio "the state that we must win and will win."

___

Ken Thomas can be reached at http://twitter.com/AP_Ken_Thomas


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Romney criticizes Obama economic policies in Utah (AP)

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SALT LAKE CITY – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney criticized President Barack Obama's economic policies Friday at campaign stops in his one-time home state of Utah.

"Gasoline is too expensive, food's too expensive, there's too many people out of work, and there's nothing to be proud of in Barack Obama's economic policies," Romney said from the back of a bright red pickup outside a popular Salt Lake City drive-in restaurant. "My policies will get Americans back to work and let America lead the world as it has in the past."

Romney's stop at the locally owned Hires Big H was his first public appearance in heavily Republican Utah since he announced his bid for the nomination. The event drew about 200 supporters and was bookended by a pair of private fundraisers, including a $1,000-a-plate luncheon at a private home in Orem and a $2,500 per-person reception at a downtown Salt Lake City.

It wasn't clear Friday how much money Romney had raised during his swing through the state.

This is Romney's second bid for the GOP nomination. He's considered the front-runner in a primary field that includes former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

Romney said that by the end of his first term, Obama will have racked up more debt than all previous U.S. presidents combined — a remark that drew loud booing from the crowd.

"He has spent too much money, he has borrowed too much money ... he's put in place the greatest takeover of states' rights with his Obamacare, which we're gonna repeal and reverse," Romney said with his wife of 42 years, Ann, by his side.

Merle and Robert Fullmer, republicans from Midvale, waited about an hour in the hot sun to see the candidate. They said they think Romney, who like the couple is a member of the Utah-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, can tackle the nation's economic and foreign policy problems.

"He seems to have integrity and he seems to have the right experience at this particular time in politics," said Robert Fullmer, 78.

A registered Democrat, Anne Ryan, of Portland, Ore., interrupted her Utah visit to bring her husband and two teenage sons to the rally.

"I am a Mitt fan. I've followed his campaign for a long time ... and also this is just such an experience for my son to come see a campaign event," said the 43-year-old, who is also a Mormon.

Ryan, a former computer systems engineer, said it was Romney's performances as Massachusetts' governor and head of the 2002 Olympic Winter Games in Salt Lake City that drew her interest and support.

After the rally, Romney munched on a cheeseburger and talked with local small-business owners and state government leaders about their concerns, including taxes, health insurance costs, entitlement programs and energy policy.


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Republican Romney to tap ex-pat wealth in London (Reuters)

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BOSTON (Reuters) – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney takes his fund-raising machine to London next month, holding a reception aimed at wealthy American expatriates working at banks and hedge funds.

A handful of London fund-raisers were held during the 2008 presidential election cycle, but Romney's event, scheduled for July 6, will be the earliest ever of its kind.

The reception will be held at Dartmouth House, an opulent mansion in the heart of Mayfair that is often used for weddings and conferences.

The suggested contribution to the "Romney for President" campaign is $2,500, according to an invitation seen by Reuters. Under U.S. law, only American citizens and green card holders can contribute.

Romney is the front-runner for the Republican nomination to take on President Barack Obama in 2012, in part because of his campaign's huge war-chest. He also ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

The former Massachusetts governor has held dozens of fund-raisers across the United States this year, including at least three in New York that were hosted by backers from the financial industry.

Co-chairs of the London event include billionaire hedge fund manager Louis Bacon, founder of Moore Capital Management; businessman Robert Wood "Woody" Johnson IV; and Dwight Poler, managing director for Europe at Bain Capital, the venture capital firm that Romney co-founded in 1984.

Overseas fund-raisers were unknown for U.S. candidates until former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, at that point among the top Republican candidates, broke the ice in September 2007.

John McCain, who eventually won the Republican nomination in 2008, also raised funds in London. And Obama raised a reported $400,000 at the London home of Elizabeth Murdoch, daughter of media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, in May 2008.

Romney campaign officials did not immediately comment on the candidate's plans while in London.

(Reporting by Ros Krasny; Editing by Paul Simao)


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Illegal Immigration Will See No Action with White House Up for Grabs (ContributorNetwork)

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COMMENTARY | Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) set off a firestorm last week with his comments connecting the devastating Arizona wildfires to illegal immigration. According to the Huffington Post, McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for president, said, "There is substantial evidence that some of these fires are caused by people who have crossed our border illegally." In light of McCain's comments, illegal immigration is once again dominating national headlines.

A Frustrated Electorate

A Pew Hispanic Center study found in 2010 there were 11.2 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. Poll after poll shows an anxiety-ridden nation frustrated by the government's inability to stop the influx of illegal crossings from Mexico. A Rasmussen poll indicates that only 30 percent of Americans believe the border is secure, while 64 percent say it is not. An overwhelming 84 percent of Americans are concerned that illegal immigrants could be an unfair burden on schools, hospitals and government services, according to Gallup. These poll numbers have forced politicians at the state and federal level to address illegal immigration, but a solution has proved elusive.

Legislative Action or Inaction?

Thus far in 2011, state legislatures have introduced 52 bills dealing with illegal immigration. Most of these bills replicate elements of Arizona's controversial SB 1070, which gave law enforcement officers broad powers in deciphering the immigration status of an individual.

Utah's HB497, Georgia's HB87 and Indiana's HB56 all hold provisions allowing law enforcement to check perpetrators' immigration status during an arrest, although the conditions in each state vary. However, states have tried to learn from what happened in Arizona. For example, Utah passed three immigration laws and established a guest worker program that would allow illegal immigrants to work, with one stipulation being that they learn English. Small concessions such as these have done little to quiet critics who take issue with the intrusiveness of the laws.

On the federal level, President Obama has made the DREAM Act the focal point of his immigration reform. The act died last year in the Senate thanks to a Republican filibuster. Under the DREAM Act, "qualifying undocumented youth would be eligible for a six year long conditional path to citizenship that requires completion of a college degree or two years of military service."

At all levels, immigration legislation has run into problems. State laws are continually challenged in courts for violating civil liberties. At the federal level, the DREAM Act has yet to become law despite its reintroduction in May of this year.

Ratings Galore

The media have cashed in on illegal immigration by fueling partisanship. Illegal immigration provides the perfect backdrop for screaming pundits on the left and right. The media have the keen ability to simplify complicated issues into basic arguments. Republicans are portrayed as nativists who desire the expulsion of illegal immigrants because they drain the country's resources and take jobs. Democrats want to continue entitlement programs for illegal immigrants while regular Americans struggle to find work.

For proof, look to Ann Coulter, who has made a living off of chastising liberals. According to the Los Angeles Times, Coulter said, "Then, the Democrats latched on to blacks as another mob to be led - just like women, gays, Hispanics, illegal immigrants, government workers, etc., etc." Representing the left is Keith Olbermann, who once called immigration laws "xenophobic" on one of his "Worst Person in the World" segments, according to the Washington Post. The media continue to paint both sides as "fringe" elements incapable of coming to an agreement.

Playing Both Sides

Sen. McCain's comments simply reminded a country in the economic wilderness that illegal immigration is still an issue. Despite all the political wheeling and dealing, the nation lacks a comprehensive plan for illegal immigration. According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, Latinos now make up 16.3 percent of America's total population. Pew Hispanic Center points out that in 2008, Hispanics represented 9 percent of the vote. With so much influence, both parties are hesitant to alienate Hispanics. But they also need to create the illusion immigration reform is on the horizon. In reality, heated rhetoric pertaining to illegal immigration will continue yet little will be done on the legislative front. A significant bloc of voters could be lost if either party makes the wrong move before the 2012 elections. Neither party will be moving on illegal immigration with the White House in play.


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